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206-910-1000  Ardell@SoundRealty.biz www.searchingseattle.com

Jul. 21, 2008 - Housing Sales Volume is Stabilizing

Above stats not compiled or published by NWMLS

Last week when I did the Sunday Night Stats over at Rain City Guide, I noted that "volume is stabilizing".

On the Tuesday after that Sunday, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR also used those words "volume is Stabilizing" in the conversation we had with him courtesy of Dustin Luther and 4Realz.net. (you can click the play button at the bottom of that 2nd linked post to hear the conversation.

Some people have been asking, what does "Volume is Stabilizing" mean?  YOY sales are still down dramatically, so how is volume "stabilizing"?

Once you give in to the concept of diminished sales on a YOY basis, knowing volume is forever changed for the near distant future, you have to track if the volume is continuing to drop OR is stabilizing at the dropped level.

The way that you do this is to compare the normal relationship of one month to another.  Let's say sales in November are lower than July.  Some will report that as "volume continuing to drop" and that could be erroneous, though literally correct.

Think of it like body temp.  If someone's normal body temp is 96, they could have a high fever at 99.  Someone else with a normal body temp of 98.6 would have a very low grade fever at 99.  Same temp, different diagnosis.

If November is normally 7.5% of a year's sales and July is normally 9.5% of a year's sales, then that standard drop from July 2008 to November 2008 is not a DROP in volume relationships.  It is a literal, but expected and normal drop.  That is why I like to use the pie chart as to literal volume and the bar graph as to expected relationship of sales in a year's time.

You can see that the pie slices moved into a normal pattern subsequent to the immediate drop in August/September of 2007.  Jan, Feb, March, etc...fanned out in it's normal cyclical pattern.  That is what we mean by "volume is stabilizing".

However, I am seeing a few red flags in that regard.  Residential seems to be playing out in fairly normal pattern within a normal range of variance.  Condos however are a little harder to call at down to 506 from May's 544.  In previous years May has sometimes exceeded June, so I'm not saying it's a problem, but it is a red flag to watch.

I base this not only on the pure numbers, but on what I am seeing in the marketplace.  I was taught to watch the condos more closely than single family homes during a downturn as if condos don't move well, that affects all legs of the marketplace in lag fashion.  Condos not selling well is often the first sign that the residential market will have trouble a few months ahead of that and in continued fashion.  I believe that could be the case.

In smaller samplings I have seen many low priced condos going into escrow and falling out of escrow, not just once, but 3 or 4 times before a sale "sticks".  That means pending sales are inflated by properties in escrow with buyers that can't secure financing. 

I am also seeing many people who wish to downsize at my condo and townhome Open Houses BUT they can't buy "until their single family home sells".  If the sales of lower end housing, condos and townhomes, is further curtailed, (and I believe they are and will be) this will influence the currently stabilizing volume of residential sales even further down the road.

Of course no one gives a RA about volume except for the few of us tracking the market in this manner.  Me, Lawrence Yun, Jonathan Miller, etc...  care about volume.  Everyone else cares about price!  But whether or not price will fall slightly or more dramatically is influenced by volume stabilizing or falling again.  If volume stabilizes, prices may fall 15% and stop.  If volume slides out again, you could see prices falling  by 35% or more.  So tracking volume is the order of the day.

The end of the third quarter will give us a full 12 months of changed volume statistics.  So for now, suffice it to see that the current market of the next 45 days is relatively stable as to volume in the single family home markets...but the other shoe may be ready to drop as evidenced by some red flags in the condo arena.

I won't wait until the end of September...we will continue to track this month to month through the 3rd quarter.  Volume down is not what we are looking for.  Volume down more than seasonal variances is what we are looking for.

Jul. 10, 2008 - Pottery Barn Paint Colors That Sell

I did a search of properties that sold recently and quickly and found some interesting colors on the walls.  While neutral may be what most agents say you should do, when inventory is stacking up and properties all start to look the same, sometimes the one that really stands out with color is the one chosen.

These are acutal colors on the walls of recently sold homes.  Sorry I can't show you the whole photos, but I'm not allowed to repost the photos of other people's listings.  These are up to the minute "SOLD" colors.

The long skinny color is right fromt he wall of a sold property.  It shows a little darker in the photo than it acutally was in person, so I'm going to give a couple of examples.

The first is Semolina from the Potter Barn Collection that I've mentioned before.  The second is also from Sherwin Wiliiams, but not the Pottery Barn Colors and is called Robust Orange, the last one that I have seen a couple of times is Flamme Orange

These are pretty bright colors, so get a color sample and try and area first.  Use sparingly and as an accent color in combinations.  Semolina was on the side wall that met the darker color.  A fabulous comibination, but clearly not for everyone.  Your wood tones should be warm tones to mix with these colors.

The color above is taken from an actual wall of a recently sold property.  It was an accent color used in an alcove in the hallway.  The walls next to it were light and soft taupe.

Pottery Barn's Pear Green is similar in tone. Stem Green which I've mentioned in an early post is a little closer and these greens look good together.  But the color in person was actually a lot closer to that last green which is Benjamin Moor Malachy Green.

The above color also came from an actual wall of a sold property.  It was the staircase wall going up from the first floor to the second floor.  You will notice that the three patches of color I took directly from the walls of thehomes are not as even toned as the color chips.  These show the variations of the color under different lighting conditions.

The right end may be similar to Benjamin Moore's "maryville brown", but really that is just the lighting affect.  The second brown, Seville Brown, is much closer to the right tone, but too dark. It's hard to tell if the original color was the last, Brown Sugar, and it darkened at the bottom of the stairs, or it was Seville Brown that lightened at the top.  But those second two are definitely in the right color family.

The color of SOLD...is not always boring :)

Jul. 10, 2008 - 2nd Quarter King County Volume Down

Of course we know volume is down relative to last year.  That's pretty much true everywhere in the Country.

Of course the number of sales in the second quarter is more than the number of sales in the first quarter, however the % down has increased.

In the 1st Quarter of 2008 condo sales were down 38% compared to the first quarter of last year.  In the 2nd Quarter of 2008 condo sales are down 47% compared to 2nd quarter last year. 

In the 1st Quarter of 2008 SFH sales were down 31% compared to the 1st Quarter of 2007.  In the 2nd Quarter of 2008 SFH sales were down 37% compared to the 2nd Quarter of 2007.

So volume is not continuing to be less by the same percentage, it is dropping further.

Jul. 10, 2008 - condos - 1st quarter vs 2nd quarter

Statistics not compiled or posted by NWMLS (required disclosure)

Jul. 10, 2008 - 1st quarter and 2nd quarter SFH sales

Statistics not compiled or posted by NWMLS (required disclosure)

Jul. 10, 2008 - First Half 2008 Condo Sales Comparison

The below graph depicts the change in number of condos sold in the first half of the year comparing 2008 with the previous two years.

Jul. 10, 2008 - Single Family Home Sales 1st half

The below bar graph shows the change in the number of single family homes sold in the First Half of each year from 2006 through 2008.

Statistics not compiled or posted by NWMLS (required disclosure)

Jul. 10, 2008 - Kirkland Real Estate Market June 2008

Back on January 8th I calculated some stats as a basis for comparison throughout the year.  Below are two graphs that give you a quick visual showing how the market is playing out in 2008.

For the current data graph, I used a 12 month rolling basis for sold info.  The Actively for sale and In Escrow data is current as of today.

The market below is Kirkland, both Residential and Condo combined.

The above graph is as of today July 10, 2008

The below graph is as of January 8, 2008

Statistics not compiled or posted by NWMLS (required disclosure)

Jul. 6, 2008 - Median Single Family Home prices down

Median single family home prices are down from $300 per square foot to $289 per square foot and the median priced paid for a home in King County is also down this June to $450,000 from last June when the median price paid was $475,000.  In a few days after I am sure that all King County end of June sales are in, I will compile a few more reports of the first half of 2008 and the 2nd quarter of 2008. 

Statistics not compiled or posted by NWMLS (required disclosure)

Jul. 6, 2008 - Condo buyers getting more for their money

Even though condo sales volume is way down, as is evidenced in my earlier post, and median price per square foot is down from $300 per square foot in June of 2007 to $289 in 2008, the median price of condos sold in June is up.

Those who are buying condos are not opting to pay lower prices, rather they are spening higher prices and getting larger units, on average.  This is also reflective of the fact that those who can afford to buy, can also afford to buy larger and more expensive units.  Those who can't afford to buy under current financing guidelines are creating an imbalance toward the more expensive, as those buyers are the ones who would have purchased the chearper and smaller condos.

Interesting result in this segment of the market.

 Statistics not compiled or posted by NWMLS. (required disclosure)